2015: Impeachment Hunters And The Moving Targets

Our lawmakers have a lot to learn from Atamátàsé, the mythical hunter who never missed a target. Any animal he aimed his gun at eventually became a dead meat. There are three things Nigerian lawmakers need to know about this hunter. First, he did not come about his skills overnight. He acquired it over the course of his professional training and practice as a hunter. Second, hunting was his primary job; that was what he did for a living. Third, the animals he hunted were game–humans redesigned them for food and caught them by hunting.

It’s a different story with our lawmakers for whom hunting down high stake politicians, by impeaching them,is a seasonal fever that catches on only when some election is around the corner. It is a political game used to force certain politicians into the mainstream or force them out. That’s why, as the preparations for the 2015 general elections began to heat up, there have been talks about, or attempts at, impeaching one major politician or the other, including President Goodluck Jonathan; Senate President David Mark; Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal; and  the Rivers State Governor, Chibuike Amaechi.

The details of the various impeachment plots are not as important as of their links to President Jonathan, the leader of the mainstream, who seems to be fighting a battle of his life for reelection in 2015. It is unclear why he has declined to declare his 2015 intention, despite the sage urge to do so by his octogenarian adviser, Chief Tony Anenih. What is clear is that Jonathan is facing a barrage of opposition forces within his party, all of them assuming that he will run for reelection in 2015, contrary to their own (so far hidden) agenda.

The hypocrisy in Jonathan’s silence about 2015 is revealed in his actions, especially since the chairmanship election of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum in May, 2013, which was won by Governor Amaechi. Since that time, Amaechi and his sympathisers within the Peoples Democratic Party have become targets of political exorcism—they are punished or threatened with suspension, expulsion, or even imprisonment (without trial!). The result is the perception that Jonathan and the entire leadership of the PDP are making every effort to stifle dissent and the exercise of freewill by any member or group of members within his party.

The result is a series of confrontations between Jonathan and the leaders of the dissenting groups within his party, culminating in the splinter group that goes by the name, the New PDP. It is unclear whether this group is behind the failed attempt to impeach Jonathan. There is no doubt, however, that it is the one blowing the whistle about attempts by the Old PDP to impeach key politicians opposed to Jonathan or perceived to be so.

Since its whistleblowing has not been completely dismissed by the Old PDP, it has to be taken seriously. But then, both Old and New PDP are birds of the same feather, each strategising for advantage toward 2015. From all indications, the Old PDP may not have the votes to impeach anybody. Neither is the New PDP, as presently constituted, although its membership seems to be widening. The whole impeachment hunting may therefore be dismissed as nothing but a political charade.

Well, not so fast. True, no one may be impeached at the end of the day, but impeachment threats serve as a mode of intra-party communication within the PDP: Join us or play ball, or else you will face the consequences. Nor should the nuisance value of impeachment hunting be easily dismissed. From the Presidency to the hallowed halls of the legislative chambers, everyone has been scheming at the expense of governance or legislative work. In essence, the lame duck session has started, preparatory to the 2015 general elections. It is a period in our political culture when governance is sacrificed for all kinds of political games aimed at gaining advantage in the party primary. The fact that it is starting this early is indicative of the stakes attached to the 2015 elections.

To be sure, factionalism around election time is the staple of the PDP. It has survived such factions in the past and gone on to win elections. This was particularly true of the era of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, whose strategy was to prevent a climax from occurring. Thus, he forced Vice-President Atiku Abubakar out of the party and got other presidential aspirants to step down before the 2007 primary.

The reverse is the case with Jonathan. He often acted after the climactic event. Thus, he waited until the NGF election was conducted and won before he took action against Amaechi. Similarly, he went into a party convention, knowing full well about ongoing intra-party disputes  and without securing other public spaces, like the Yar’Adua Centre, which allowed a faction to walk out and hold its own convention there simultaneously. The hard truth Jonathan must now deal with is that times have changed. Given the electoral preparedness of the people, it will be difficult to rig the presidential election in 2015. That’s why Jonathan needs more than ever before to reconcile the warring factions within his party in order to secure the nomination in the first place.

Given the aversion to rigging in the general elections, Jonathan will need more than the support of his party to win. That’s why he needs to learn about a certain aspect of Antonio Gramsci’s theory of hegemony, which emphasises the need for leaders to build and maintain a coalition of interests across “historical blocs”in order to maintain and retain power. For present purposes, entities such as political parties, ethnic groups, and religious groups may be regarded as “historical blocs”. Rather than stake all his fortunes in a PDP, whose popularity has been dwindling by the day, Jonathan should learn from three other members of his party, who have operationalised this aspect of Gramsci’s theory of hegemony to advantage.

In 2003, Obasanjo successfully, if only mischievously, built a coalition with the Alliance for Democracy, and,with its assistance, won the presidential election. The current Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, used a similar tactic in 2011. He floored the PDP establishment candidate, by building a coalition with members of the opposition parties in the House. Amaechi would capitalise on a similar coalition in 2013 to defeat the PDP establishment candidate in the NGF chairmanship election. The lesson here for Jonathan is clear: He must not only consolidate support within his own party, by carrying everyone along, he must also reach out beyond his party.

BY NIYI AKINNASO